COSMOS COAST (predict shoreline change, particularly due to sea-level rise and coastal storms)

Studying long-term morphodynamic processes through simple sediment balances

• Simplified models - Uncertain parameters

• Uncertainty about the model solution

• Estimation of uncertain parameters through data assimilation (e.g. Kalman filter)

COSMOS COAST MODEL FEATURES

• Accounts for longshore and cross-shore sand transport and local trends

• Assimilates historical shoreline observations to calibrate and validate the model

• Typically applied to project shoreline change on decadal to centennial time scales

• Run in an ensemble to better characterize uncertainty

• Model output is optionally .kml files, readable in Google Earth < /ul>